1. Key Freight Sector Performance in the Last Quarter / Recent Months
In South Africa, for the first four months of 2025, sub-sector performance has been mixed:
- Air freight grew by +14.1% y/y.
- Rail freight rose by +3.9% over the same period.
- Sea freight showed modest growth: about +1.2% y/y. • Meanwhile road freight contracted quite strongly: −7.5% in that period.
Globally, air freight remains perhaps the most dynamic sub-sector:
- According to IATA, global air cargo demand in 2024 increased ~11.3% over 2023.
- Capacity (available capacity) also increased (though less than demand), pushing up load factors. In
In sea / ocean freight:
- Projections suggest global seaborne volumes are expected to grow by ~2.0-2.5% in 2025, up slightly from 2024.
- The value of the ocean freight market was approx USD $79.6 billion in 2024 and is forecast to reach about USD $82.1 billion in 2025.
In road freight (global) there’s steady growth, but it is uneven:
- The global road freight transportation market size was about USD $2376.25 billion in 2024.
- It is projected to grow to USD ~$2491.1 billion in 2025 and to much higher (~USD $3737.22B) by 2034, at a CAGR of ~4.6-5%.
2. E-commerce’s Role Over the Past 5 Years
E-commerce has been a major growth driver for freight/logistics globally, particularly for air freight and certain parts of sea/road that deal with consumer parcels.
Here are some observations:
- Volume of parcels & demand for speed & flexibility: With more people buying goods online, there is a large increase in small parcel shipments (cross-border and domestic), which has pushed demand for faster delivery and more frequent, flexible routing. This tends to favor air freight for high‐value / time-sensitive goods, and road freight for last-mile delivery.
- Modal shifts: E-commerce has sometimes led to “sea-to-air” shifts when ocean freight is delayed or less reliable, especially during disruptions (e.g. port congestion, detours, etc.). There is also upward pressure on costs in air freight when capacity is tight.
- Infrastructure & real estate: More logistics/distribution centers, warehousing closer to consumers, more sophisticated sorting & fulfilment centres. In the U.S., for example, reports show that occupied logistics space has surged (double-digit percentages) since pre-pandemic, driven by e-commerce needs.
- Growth rates & market size:
• E-commerce accounts for a large chunk of retail growth in many markets. For example, in the U.S., ecommerce accounted for about 56% of total retail sales growth in 2024 vs. ~1.8% for in-store.
• In Europe’s major economies (UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain), online retail sales are projected to rise from ~€389B in 2024 to ~€565B in 2029, rising at ~7.8% CAGR.
Impact on freight segments: • Air freight has benefited more from the rise in e-commerce for high value / time sensitive goods. CTKs (cargo tonne-kilometres) have grown substantially.
• Sea freight has had more muted growth, given its inherent slowness, but e-commerce (especially cross-border) still depends heavily on ocean freight for lower-cost bulk transport. Delays / port congestion, etc., have significant ripple effects.
• Road freight (especially last-mile) has expanded sharply to meet consumer delivery demand, but costs (fuel, infrastructure, labour) and inefficiencies have been a brake. Also, economic slowdowns in specific sectors (manufacturing, mining, agriculture) affect bulk road freight. (As seen in South Africa where road freight payloads have dropped year over year.)
3. Challenges & Headwinds
- Capacity constraints, especially in air freight, during spikes (seasonal, disruptions) lead to high rates and unpredictability.
- Port/infrastructure bottlenecks are a big problem for sea freight: delays, inefficiencies raise costs, reduce reliability.
- Cost inflation (fuel, labour, logistics real estate) squeezes margins.
- Economic slowdown in some markets reduces demand for heavy / bulk freight (manufacturing, mining, agriculture).
- Sustainability and regulation pressures: emissions, environmental rules are adding cost and sometimes forcing shifts in transport modes.
4. Summary & Outlook
- Air freight is the star performer recently, showing the highest growth in many markets, helped by e-commerce demand for speed and shipment reliability.
- Sea freight is more stable but growing at modest rates; still crucial for bulk and cost-sensitive flows.
- Road freight is under pressure in some contexts (especially where the economy is weak or infrastructure is strained), but remains essential for last-mile and regional delivery.
Over the next few years, growth is likely to continue, especially driven by e-commerce, but with increasing competition, cost pressures, and the need for investment in infrastructure & technology.
